Cross-posted from Burnt Orange Report

Earlier this morning, I started to write about how Senator Obama's money could benefit Democrats running for the Texas House:

If we can protect all of our incumbents, win a few of the open seats and win a few challenge races, then we can elect -- to use the term of "Orange to Blue" framing -- a Better Democrat as Speaker of the House.

I went on to discuss at least three direct positives from having a Better Democrat as Speaker of the House. However, I wouldn't expect anyone to send money to a state where it wouldn't be effective, and though it may be a motivating idea, hope is not a strategy.

Looking at this week's State House predictions for the Burnt Orange Politial Report, though, I can confidently make an argument that Texas Democrats don't need need to rely on strategy. There is a clear path to victory for a Democratic Majority in the Texas House. Here's how it happens -- counting up from our current 79 Republican, 71 Democrat split:

72nd & 73rd House Democrats: Diana Maldonado & Chris Turner (Lean Democrat)

• HD-52: Diana Maldonado (D) vs. Bryan Daniel (R) - Open Seat
• HD-96: Chris Turner (D) vs. Rep. Bill Zedler (R)

To learn more about the specifics of each race, click on the links above.

Maldonado is running in Williamson County, just north of Travis County (Austin, TX). Southern Williamson County is one of the suburban / ex-urban counties that Democrats are starting to win across the country, as Texas families move away from big city centers to find space, better schools, and a perceived higher quality of life. Maldonado is the former President of the Round Rock ISD Board of Trustees; she has a perfect profile in the district, is dominating in fundraising, and has an excited group of volunteers that are about to send her to the State House in a race where the unpopular incumbent Republican cut and ran.

Turner is one of the best campaigners we have in the state. Also with a major fundraising lead, he has worked as District Director for Congressman Chet Edwards -- Chris knows how to run a tough race in Republican country, and the district he's running in isn't that conservative. He's running against right-wing immigrant-bashing nutcase Bill Zedler, whose website prominently features Rush Limbaugh on his site!

Maldonado and Turner are both "Lean Democrat" seats.

74th Democrat: Joe Moody in El Paso, TX (Toss-Up)

• HD-78: Joe Moody (D) vs. Dee Margo (R) - Open Seat

Another open seat, Moody has the best base Democrat vote of any challenger running. A new El Paso Times poll has an inordinate number of undecideds, and I'm told that internal polls show that Moody is poised to do well in the seat. A young, energetic candidate, Moody has shown promise as of late in his efforts to knock on doors in communities typically ignored by elected officials.

We also have today's news that Moody's signs are showing up at GOP headquarters.

If there is strong Hispanic GOTV efforts in El Paso County for Senator Obama, Moody will sweep into office no question. But this is definitely a place where extra money from Senator Obama for GOTV efforts could help him, not only to increase his own % of the Hispanic vote, but to elect another Democrat to the State House.

75th Democrat: Joel Redmond in Harris County (Toss-Up)

• HD-144: Joel Redmond (D) vs. Ken Legler (R) - Open Seat
  

Redmond is running in an open seat that was vacated by a staunch conservative who happened to be opposed to our entrenched House Speaker, Tom Craddick. Winning this seat, therefore, preserves a vote against a terrible House Speaker AND gets us a Better Demorat to vote on issues.

Redmond has knocked almost every door in his district. He's running in Harris County, where the County Coordinated Campaign is running a heavy effort for races up and down the entire ballot. Senator Obama sinking money into GOTV efforts in Harris Count would help push Redmond over the top, as well as help him with U.S. Senate candidate Rick Noriega, Congressional candidates Larry Joe Doherty and Michael Skelley, and numerous other State House races -- including Redmond.

76th Democrat: Carol Kent in Dallas (Toss-Up)

• HD-102: Carol Kent (D) vs. Rep. Tony Goolsby (R)
  

This race has moved up from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-Up" over the past week. It was always on the verge, and I received more e-mails this week than on any other candidate.

Here's how one commenter made the argument:

1) Carol received a strong endorsement from the Dallas Morning News.  Harriet Miller did not receive the endorsement in 2006.
2) Carol is an elected official having served on the Richardson School Board since 2004. Most of the district sits within the Richardson School District.
3) The Obama wind behind our back.
4) Carol has done very well with her fundraising.
5) Carol has strong crossover appeal.  I've seen many homes with McCain and Kent signs.
6) Republicans who know Goolsby don't like him. Basically they see him as a do-nothing. 

I also have had conversations directly with the Kent campaign. I hope to post some of the figures from those conversations later in the week  -- but at the end of the day, there are too many positives for Kent in this race to not at least consider it a "Toss-Up."

Senator Obama performed well in Dallas County in the primary; he could do well to direct GOTV money towards this other newly-minted Blue area of Texas, both for Texas House races as well as potential races in the State Senate AND to help move Rick Noriega over the hump.

Lean Republican Races --  As Many as 80 Democrats?

• HD-55: Samuel Murphey (D) vs. Ralph Sheffield (R) - Open Seat
  
• HD-101: Robert Miklos (D) vs. Mike Anderson (R) - Open Seat
• HD-129: Sherrie Matula (D) vs. Rep. John Davis (R)
  
• HD-133: Kristi Thibaut (D) vs. Rep. Jim Murphy (R)

Any one of these races are within range for Democrats this cycle. Murphey  -- another Chet Edwards staffer -- is running a perfect ground game in a moderately conservative district. Matula and Thibaut could both benefit from the massive efforts in Harris County this cycle. Miklos is flying under the radar in Dallas now that Kent's campaign is surging, but a strong direct mail program in the last two weeks could push his margins close.

All of these races are within a few points -- and a strong, "vote straight Democratic ticket" effort could make the difference. Plans are in place by County Coordinated campaigns and the Texas Democratic Party to hammer home the "vote straight Democrat" message in the final days...but Senator Obama could move $1-2 million into Texas and put all of these races in play immediately.

That is the State of the House races two weeks from election day. Will Senator Obama and national Democratic organizations help Texas Democrats just like we've helped them so much over the years?

Stay tuned.

Burnt Orange Report was following the weekend's TX county conventions and brings us this update - Todd

The current state of the Texas primary/caucus has Obama leading Clinton by 3 delegates. Here is the breakdown of delegates allocated to date.

In the state of Texas, 126 national delegates are primary-chosen, determined on March 4, and 67 national delegates are caucus-chosen, which won't be finalized until the state convention on June 6-7. In addition to these 193 pledged delegates, there are 35 Superdelegates elected from Texas, to total 228 delegates to Texas.

This past weekend, over 280 county conventions (or caucuses, for everyone else) were held in the next stage of the caucus process, just like Iowa had their second stage a couple weeks ago. We tracked the results from the conventions at Burnt Orange Report (besting the coverage of the Associated Press), and with 90% reporting, Obama leads Clinton 55.22% to 44.78%. That translates into a 37-30 pledged delegate lead for Obama.

Here is the overall state of the race, with our sources listed below:

                                                   Obama        Clinton
TX Primary-Chosen Results             61                65
TX Caucus-Chosen Results              37                30
---------------------------------------- -------------------------
Total Pledged Delegates                   98               95

The final caucus results won't be until the state convention on June 6, so these are not final numbers, but rather the current state of the race, should it end today. Obviously the Caucus numbers can and will change in the coming months -- but it's also fair to report where we are now.

We also are aware that these numbers differ than the +5 pledged delegate advantage reported by the Obama campaign. Their results are based on a 38-29 advantage over the caucus weekend -- and with the 10% of state convention delegates not yet accounted for, including over 280 automatic delegates to the state convention ("state Superdelegates" such as County Chairs), it is possible that a 38-29 split is still possible. However, we can only report what we know, and what we know right now is that there is a 37-30 split, advantage Obama.

However you break down the numbers, it is clear that Obama is currently winning in Texas. Even if you take the national Superdelegates from TX into account, Obama is winning Texas.

My only comment about these results is to link back to what I wrote on February 13, about how to win the Texas primary:

Senator Obama could come close to Senator Clinton in the "primary" portion and dominate the "caucus" portion --- the only catch is that those 67 votes that come from the "caucus" system won't be known until June at the Texas Democratic Party Convention.

If the expectations are that Senator Clinton will win and perhaps even dominate in Texas, then even Senator Obama finishing close on Election Day -- with an understanding that he will do well in the future caucuses -- could be enough to count as a win for Senator Obama.

Cross-posted from Burnt Orange Report. The following is the latest, and most likely final article, in BOR's continuing series focusing on how Texas Democrats won this election cycle.

Every incumbent House Democrat won re-election. The Texas House will have six more Democrats at the start of the 80th Regular Session than it did at the start of the 79th Regular Session. And Texas Democrats did it all despite being considerably outspent in every single one of their competitive races.

How did this happen? We've looked at a few individual groups, including the Houston GLBT and their involvement with the Ellen Cohen campaign, the efforts in Dallas County, and the excellent work done by Annie's List. But who had the largest overall impact towards the success of Texas' House Democrats?

That answer, unequivocably, is the House Democratic Campaign Committee (HDCC). The HDCC is the leadership PAC run by House Democratic Leader Jim Dunnam of Waco, LSG Chair Garnet Coleman of Houston, and Mexican American Caucus Chair Pete Gallego of Alpine. What began in 2004 as a simple fundraising PAC expanded this last cycle into one of the most important Democratic organizations in Texas.

From high-dollar fundraising to grassroots efforts, and from hard-hitting direct mail pieces to daily phone calls with dozens of campaigns, the HDCC made it happen. Here's a brief look into what they did, how they did it, and what to expect in the future.

On Tuesday, I introduced you to Shane Sklar. Among other things, we talked about how his background has given him knowledge on the issues, history with the district, and his experience on the campaign trail. However, in Texas, you don't only need a great candidate -- you need the right climate to win. So let's take a look at the district, who Ron Paul really is, read about his disastrous voting record, and why those all add up to Democratic victory this November.

Get to Know the District: TX-14

When looking at the map of TX-14, there is something incredibly important to remember: TX-14 is 60% different than it was in 2002, and since Paul had a seriously contested race. If you look at the interactive map, you can see how drastically the district (in light blue) has completely changed since 2000, especially the tremendous change since the map was re-drawn for the 2004 election cycle. The new map, in fact, borders a great deal of Tom Delay's old district, TX-22. DeLay's district and TX-14 share borders in Brazoria, Ft. Bend and Galveston counties. Ed. note: The image is courtesy of our friends over at the Lone Star Project.

Why is that important? Many political experts believe that the constant messaging against DeLay will seep into TX-14, inspiring Democratic and depressing Republican turnout. It makes sense: the district doesn't know Paul, and based on some of the early newspaper coverage, doesn't care much for his out-of-touch, ideological agenda.

Early polling shows that Shane Sklar is posed for an upset

A poll commissioned by the Shane Sklar campaign of likely November voters shows some excellent numbers on the race in TX-14. Among other things, the poll shows that:

• Only 33% of voters want to re-elect Ron Paul, whereas 48% want to elect someone new. 20% were undecided -- and Sklar is going after that 20%. The campaign has identified 60,000 persuadable households, and are preparing a very thorough and focused field and direct mail program for those households. According to the campaign, Shane Sklar can win if these voters change from 55% for Paul to 56% for Sklar.
• Shane Sklar leads Ron Paul 54-30% in an informed Congressional vote. Within that informed vote are 84% of Democrats, 50% of Republicans, and 58% of independents. Ed. note: Don't forget to donate here to Shane Sklar's campaign. When read a brief paragraph of Shane Sklar, voters generally support Sklar at a rate of 64%. TX-14 wants someone new, and Shane Sklar fits the profile perfectly.
• 73% of TX-14 voters are dissatisfied with Congress. Tom Delay, who is in the neighboring district, only had a 64% disapproval rating. In a year that everyone acknowledges is trending Democratic, TX-14 has one of the highest percentages of voter dissatisfaction of any Republican-incumbent district.

Ed. note: for more poll numbers on the race, inclduing a look at Ron Paul's voting record, please look below the fold.

Shane Sklar is running the most important congressional race in Texas.

I'm sure that might be surprising to some of you. I'm sure there are some that feel like I've neglected some of Texas' most well-known candidates, Nick Lampson and Chet Edwards, or that I'm neglecting one of our Netroots favorites, John Courage. The fact is that Nick Lampson has TX-22 locked up, and while Chet Edwards faces a tough protection seat, his is a campaign we can confidentally count on to deliver. I know some of you who don't know who Shane Sklar is, and think I'm nuts. I'm not. I'll say it again:

Shane Sklar is running the most important congressional race in Texas.